When The New York Times ran that headline on May 8, 2011, it did not include the question mark. I added it after reading the article, which claims to contain information that will show that the real estate market, while slumping badly nationally and in Connecticut, is experiencing “Hope” at the “High End.”

Trouble is, I had to read down to the 18th paragraph to find anything remotely resembling “Hope.”

Here are the facts as reported by the Times:

The sales of homes is down so far that prices have dropped to 2002 levels.

We are experiencing a 13% drop in sales, even more in Connecticut’s cities.

New home permits are down 20%

Sound Hopeless?

Not according to The Times.

Because during the first quarter sales above $2 million were up 20% in The Constitution State. The hard working folks in New Canaan even managed to buck the trend with average sale prices around $1.7 million.  Then we look at Greenwich, where “sales in the $5 million to $7 million range jumped 150 percent.”

Keep Hope Alive!

Or not.

You see, that 150% jump is a tad bit misleading, in that it is based on tiny actual numbers: 10 sales in the first quarter, up from 4 last year.  That’s 150% alright, but when you overlay that stat with that fact that Greenwich had 600 home sales last year down from an average 0f 700, you see that Hope is a bit of an exaggeration.

It is logical that the folks with the money are taking advantage of a buyers’ market out there, but much tighter lending requirements, with down payments of 40% or more, will continue to cool the market. Uncertainty over the future is stopping many potential home buyers from changing jobs, resulting in two lost real estate transactions for each frightened soul not willing to risk their current job for a new one.

There is one way to generate some movement in the job market that might trickle down to cause a real estate transaction:

Fire the headline writer!